Optimal Obsolescence Driven by Technological Change
نویسنده
چکیده
Technological change is examined in a model of capital production to show that “creative destruction” can occur as an outcome of firm’s optimizing behavior. Capital systems are made up of components that are necessary for them to operate and that have uncertainty with respect to durability. For each type of technological change agents make a corresponding decision about whether to continue to use the original capital system (if it is still alive) or to scrap it and build a new capital system which embodies the new technology. Each system has transitional probabilities for scrapping that depend on the size of the present value of the vintage. As technology improves, the optimizing level of durability and thus the optimal stock of embodied services increases for the new capital system. Yet simultaneously the probability of scrapping an old system over any given time interval increases. Thus, the larger is the improvement in technology, the greater is the chance of scrapping the old system before its physical service life has ended. Over some time horizon of unforeseen and rapid technological change investment in new capital systems could be increasing while at the same time old capital systems are scrapped at a faster rate.
منابع مشابه
Optimal maintenance and replacement decisions under technological change with consideration of spare parts inventories
Classical spare parts inventory models assume that the same vintage of technology will be utilized throughout the planning horizon. However, replacement often occurs in the form of a new technology. A consequence of such replacements is the rendering of existing spare parts inventories obsolete and the necessity to purchase a new set. This paper aims to study the impact of spare parts inventory...
متن کاملThe Knowledge Economy
We define the knowledge economy as production and services based on knowledge-intensive activities that contribute to an accelerated pace of technical and scientific advance, as well as rapid obsolescence. The key component of a knowledge economy is a greater reliance on intellectual capabilities than on physical inputs or natural resources. We provide evidence drawn from patent data to documen...
متن کاملOptimal Policy for the Replacement of Industrial Systems Subject to Technological Obsolescence – Using Genetic Algorithm
The technological obsolescence of industrial systems is characterized by the existence of challenger units possessing identical functionalities but with improved performance. This paper aims to define a new approach that makes it possible to obtain the optimal number of obsolete industrial systems which should be replaced by new-type units. This approach presents a new point of view compared wi...
متن کاملThe Effect of Technological Change on Firm Survival and Growth - Evidence from Technology Standards
We analyze the effect of technological change on firm exits, establishment entry and exit, and the creation and destruction of jobs. We make use of a novel measure of technological change: technology standards. Replacements and withdrawals of standards provide information about technological obsolescence, whereas references among standards signal new uses for existing technologies. Relating sta...
متن کاملObsolescence Driven Design Refresh Planning for Sustainment- Dominated Systems
Many technologies have lifecycles that are shorter than the lifecycle of the product they are in. Lifecycle mismatches caused by the obsolescence of technology (and particularly the obsolescence of electronic parts) results in high sustainment costs for long field life systems, e.g., avionics and military systems. This paper presents a methodology for performing optimum design refresh planning ...
متن کامل